Nottingham Forest’s journey to the north east on Friday represents more than just a chance to increase their buffer above the bottom three – it is also an opportunity to make a statement. Sunday’s 4-1 victory against Burnley gave the club a five-point cushion over the relegation line. Morgan Gibbs-White’s remarkable treble enabled Vitor Pereira’s team to take advantage of Tottenham Hotspur’s inability to secure more than a draw against Brighton and Hove Albion the day before. With Friday’s fixture at Sunderland kicking off at 8pm, Forest will be first into action during the next set of Premier League matches. A positive outcome would truly challenge their competitors, with Spurs and West Ham United playing the following day. Avoiding defeat would stretch their unbeaten streak to eight matches across all competitions. Carrying that momentum and building significant rhythm ahead of Thursday’s Europa League semi-final first leg against Aston Villa at home would prove invaluable.

Forest have a brief respite before that mouthwatering encounter with Villa Trentside. Securing a result against the Black Cats and taking a meaningful step towards survival could assist Pereira with his selection choices for the European ties. The discussion over whether Premier League survival or Europa League success should take precedence has been a near-constant theme throughout the campaign. Pereira has been candid about the difficulties of managing both challenges. Nevertheless, the Portuguese manager has managed a commendable balancing act thus far. If he can sustain this for a while longer, history awaits.

Pereira has made an impact since becoming the club’s fourth permanent head coach in February. Players have discussed how he has cultivated a positive environment. The statistics also indicate a noticeable effect on on-field performance. There remains potential for enhancement, but Forest appear to have shifted direction. According to GoalPoint, the team have averaged 1.57 goals per 90 minutes in the league since Pereira’s arrival. This compares to 0.96 prior to his appointment. Significant chances fashioned and significant chances converted have both increased under Pereira, rising by 30 percent and 75 percent respectively, and a distinct pattern has emerged in the team’s approach. Forest are delivering fewer crosses but are finding the net more often due to a more diverse attacking strategy.

Forest are averaging fewer attempts from open-play crosses with Pereira in charge, according to GoalPoint, at 1.29 compared to 1.7 previously. Open-play crosses have decreased from an average of 18.7 per 90 minutes in the Premier League to 12.9. However, the average number of through-balls has risen from 0.93 per 90 minutes to 1.29. Attempts created from through-balls now average 0.57 compared to 0.12, while efforts from ball carrying have increased from 0.96 to 1.26.

At the other end of the pitch, Pereira has focused on tightening the team’s defensive shape. The data indicates Forest are offering opponents fewer opportunities than was the case prior to the managerial change. Mistakes resulting in a shot, a goal or an own goal now average 0.9 per 90 minutes in the league, compared to 1.1 previously. The club’s opponents average 7.7 attempts from inside the penalty area per match, reduced from 8.7 before Pereira took over. The proportion of on-target efforts kept out has risen from 65.5 percent to 75.9 percent. Additionally, expected goals against (xG) now stands at an average of 1.2, compared to 1.5.

Across the seven league fixtures Pereira has managed, Forest have accumulated nine points. During this sequence, they have conceded seven goals while keeping clean sheets against Fulham and Spurs, and have found the net 11 times. During this span, only Leeds United (four), Brighton and Hove Albion and Bournemouth (five apiece) and Fulham (six) have shipped fewer goals. They sit 10th in the Premier League form rankings over the past six matches. Of course, the single metric that will matter when the season concludes is where the club finishes in the standings. Pereira has emphasised his desire for the players to battle until the conclusion, convinced that a substantial points total will be necessary to end above the bottom line. He understands there can be no room for complacency, while a Sunderland side currently occupying 11th position will not be underestimated.

Last week, three consecutive home fixtures felt potentially pivotal for Forest. They passed that examination impressively and now possess the chance to shape the closing stages of this campaign.